This is Mr Lincoln Augustus, first second cousin of Holymagiman.
I thought that I would pen a few words, as I feel very uncomfortable and irresponsible in letting that second first cousin of mine run riot on this most knowledgeable Hotcopper site.
Still, he means well though he is often misunderstood. Such is life.
What a drubbing the markets have had, and the news is not that crash hot either. In fact, bleak would be a most appropriate word, so I will use that word.
Yes, the markets are looking bleak. The bad news seems to be coming thick and fast all over again. That Satyam scandal in India adds to the overall gloom, but I feel that that is par for the course. There is going to be more bad news coming out of the closet, like a discarded dead rat in the rubbish heap. That is a fact.
Against this, the good news is that the hobbit who has led the Free World is disappearing back into his warren in 12 days time. This creature has single handedly overseen the worst excesses of bullying and free unchecked spending that the civilised world has witnessed.
Together with one of the most rampant efforts in cronyism. And all this has fostered a sense in those who should have known better that greed was good and that nothing was punishable.
And the so-called regulators, what can be said about them. They pervaded this world with the idea that not enough regulation was good enough regulation, and if one does something and don't get caught, then one is smart, nay brilliant. The theory of No Accountability.
In 12 days time, all that will hopefully stop. A new regime with a new mandate. A mandate to excise the cancer and gangrene that has so pervaded our lives, our thoughts and our actions. Perhaps, if I could be so dramatic, I could describe it as the coming of a new dawn.
The markets had to fall, and fall they did. That was written and as Omar Khayam states "The moving finger writes, and having writ, moves on...."
So it has been written, and the finger has moved on. We have had our medicine, and there is more to come. But the illness has been excised, and the patient is on the mend, albeit with a few fevers and shivers here and there.
That is my feeling, and I have to concur with Holymagiman in that. We may have a few more falls, but we are not going over the cliff, because that steep fall has already occured.
Once the cretin has gone, and taken his sick motley crew with him, there will be a period of consolidation while we survey the damage and pause and ponder. Ponder, with a sinking heart, how such excesses could have happened, how such greed could have been tolerated, how we had been blinded by our own self interest to allow what has happened to have happen. In finance and in politics. Enough said.
Then we will pick up our spirits and do what has to be done, to stablize things and correct the wrongs that have been done.
All these will happen in the next few months. But initially, the first of the good news, the news that will turn this market, is the news that America has a new President. A person who appears learned, compassionate and capable of thought. A person who has travelled widely. A person who was not born with a silver spoon stuck down his gullet.
It would help, of course, if Bernanke went on a long holiday, but one can wish for too much too soon.
But anyway, to cut a long story short, and to summarise our thoughts, and going contrary to what is being widely tipped, Holymagiman and I both feel that the anchor is now dragging along the bottom, though there may be a little trough in the sea-bed here and there.
China and India are not going to save the world, and bring back the markets to their previous heady levels. A lot of people hoped for this, a lot of people prayed for this, but alas, it was not to be, and never was to be. It is so clear in hindsight, but the experts got it wrong, so who were we poor lesser mortals to think otherwise.
However the average person's spending and consumerism in general is still going to lead to a steady need for goods and services and that is going to prevent the plug from being pulled and everything going down the kitchen waste. What everyone is forgetting is that people spend When times are good because we feel good. And when times are bad, because we want to feel good. Strange, but true.
And so, Holymagiman and I still feel that the $US is overvalued, that the $A is undervalued and that the oil price has but one way to go, up.
Those are our thoughts for now. We could be right, we may be wrong, but that is just what we feel in the bones.
And so we leave you with the blessing of the Lord MLA
