Running discussion on SP, page-31161

Yes AVZ can keep their development shut to support prices too. Cause if they open a 4MTPA mine the price is staying exactly where it is now.

The likes of Benchmark - hype future prices and demand because their paying customers are developers looking to attract shareholders and investment. It's what Benchmark are paid to do. The reality has - let's be diplomatic - fallen as far short of the hype as the long road from Manono to Lubambashi. It will continue to do so despite growing demand.

AVZ need 900 million to develop and the price to be consistently $650 to make a return on investment. Only there are no signs of that price at all - and with dozens developments around the globe just itching to go - how would it possibly get there, maintain it AND make EVs affordable enough?

There will be short term spikes to $650, even $700 but expansions on existing developments, and new developments in North America and Europe will keep the LT price at $520 - $575.
How's the AVZ IRR looking at that price? It's looking a lot like the mine in the article above. Shut.
And that's without any of the miriad of internal problems like disease, fighting, famine, logistics of getting to port etc having an impact at any stage - which is a fantasy in itself.