CYP

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27.0¢ cynata therapeutics limited

Ann: Patient Enrolment Opens in COVID-19 Clinical Trial, page-9

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219 Posts.

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24/08/20

11:28

Post #: 46763492
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Originally posted by JB1975 ↑

MEND - MEseNchymal coviD-19 announcement.

Or Management Explains they're Not Dead/Distracted but are actually doing something.

As a holder it is good to see this announcement and the early market reaction to it. Which at around 92 to 93 cents almost put the directors proposed exercise price of 97 cents within striking range - yet in my opinion this announcement contains not a lot.

The announcement does not say patient one has commenced treatment - no - the announcement says patient enrolment has opened.

So what has changed in practice? Why has this announcement arrived now - after the appendix 3g and after the recent announcement relating to Peter Brooke and the proposal for director options at 97 cents?

Clearly hospital approval of a trial in a hospital is necessary so perhaps Westmead and Kingwood hospitals completed the paperwork (signed off there versions of the contracts) over the weekend and/or some signatures went on to some papers just before market opened monday morning?

What was the specific driver for the timing of this announcement monday morning pre-market versus friday afternoon I wonder? It just about has to have been that it was a paper work signing off that openned this for patient erolment. As no hospital okay - no hospital being ready.

But what does this announcement actually mean for intrinsic value? Is CYP really worth more as a result of it? I don't think the share price swing matches up with an intrinsic value swing. I think the company was oversold before and is over swinging upward this morning on this news.

What actually matters is not so much that patients enrolment is open (though that is a prerequisite) but that the patients (24 of them) do get enrolled in a reasonable time to give a reasonable result on the test in a reasonable timeframe.

Nothing in this announcement addresses my concerns about getting 24 patients enrolled when the patients have to be ICU-stage sick not just hospital stage sick - they have to be at a hospital where there is an agreement to do this trial - and they cannot have taken an investigational research agent (whatever that means) in the last 60 days.

It would be possible, it seems to me to open this trial (and announce that) without having confidence that 24 patients could ever be found that would satisfy the criteria. On the other hand it might also be the case that some gaming out has been done and Killian is confident (because he has checked) that CYP can get 24 patients with ICU-level sickness into the hospitals (and perhaps some others) that will not be excluded as per the exclusion criteria.

But on the basis on the publicly available info in this announcement I can't as a shareholder tell whether Killian and/or CYP are just taking a punt on getting 24 patients or whether they have gamed out an actual way to get 24 patients in a reasonable time at a reasonable cost.

Perhaps some further info will come out in some explanations of this announcement. The very fact that this announcement moves the share price close to the 97cents makes it interesting from a news point of view in my opinion.

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Westmead update on the 13th.
COVID-19 Staff Update, 13 August 2020
Dear colleagues,

Forty-three COVID-19 patients are in home isolation and currently being managed by our Community Health team. Eight patients are in Westmead Hospital with six in ICU.

CYP Price at posting: 91.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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