Ann: Ten US university hospitals now deploying IDTF platform, page-27

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HonyakuKonyaku

662 Posts.

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24/08/20

11:41

Post #: 46764071
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Originally posted by Galilee13: ↑

Hi Crosek

I am so glad more people are trying to fully understand what is going on here. Trying to work out this business, the company announcements and in turn forecast revenue.

IMO and I am NOT a medical professional. The numbers quoted are how many patients used the IDTF facility during that month. A patient could be using the IDTF facility multiple times during a year or even a month. Thus GMV charges accordingly depending on service and importantly length of service. That why they quote a patient pays between $175 and $750 per service.

So a lot of these assumptions come down to how an individual interprets the wording of these announcements.

The first issue is the 3 fold increase. I think we can all agree that means 3 x 27,946 = c83,000 patients.

But is that 83,000 patients for CY20 or does the company hope to be annualising 83,000 patients by the end of CY20?

I'm taking the conservative number of annualising 83,000 by years end. So that's 6,900 patients a month. The company just did 3,900 for July. And that did not include a full month of all 10 new university hospitals. Let alone the remaining 7 that will likely complete the sign on process.

So IMO 83,000 annualised patients by years end is very very achievable and IMO has significant upside potential.

Now the tricky part is trying to work out an average revenue per patient services. Keep in mind a patient can be serviced more than once and IMO that patient would be counted again in the numbers.

As I have shown previously, during CY19 the company had 28,000 patients that generated 5.4m in revenue. That's an average of $192.

Based on my readings of today's chart the company has the following patients

Jan 1900
Feb 1850
Mar 1700
April 900
May 1600
June 1800

Q1 we had 5,450 patients that generated $1.23m or $225 per patient average

Q2 we had 4,300 patients that generated $0.985m or $229 per patient average

So 1H20 we had 9,750 patients that generated $2.2m or $226 per patient average

IMO 9,750 is a large enough sample size to derive a statistically significant or meaningful average.

So my conclusion is that average patient revenue has increased from $192 in 2019 to $226 in 2020. That's an 18% increase and very impressive.

Now also keep in my the changes to reimbursement codes that will come into play early next year which will have a small increase in price.

So if I assume the company will be annualising 83,000 by years end and using the last 6 month average patient revenue. The company is saying it will be doing $18.8m USD annualised by the end of the year.

Overall another really positive step forward. The company has significant momentum in this IDTF business and that looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

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Hi Galilee,

I disagree with your interpretation of annualising 83000 by years end. If that were the case, they would have stated the figures as average patient numbers per month in CY19 and expecting a 3 fold increase on monthly numbers by end CY20. Instead, they gave the full year number for CY19 and said there would be a 3 fold increase on that number for CY20. It comes down to semantics, and it would be nice to have it clarified by the company as it makes a huge difference to projections.

GMV Price at posting: 4.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: Ten US university hospitals now deploying IDTF platform, page-27

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