"..when you can be somewhat assured that the risk of permanent loss of capital is very low, under extremely conservative assumptions (looking through a through-the-cycle lens)."
This is self-evidently true, for anyone except a price speculator. But of course, what is or isn't "extremely conservative" is a matter of opinion. And where the middle of the cycle might be, is also.
When I pulled the trigger on MND it was based on a gut feel that fear was extreme, and a guesstimate of what very pessimistic cashflow projections might be. I knew that national mining capex was still likely substantially above GDP levels. But I chose to ignore that little factoid.
If I had known then the degree to which the capex figures were being bloated by oil & gas, and the degree to which MND was riding O&G, and thus how much further MND's revenues had to fall, would I have pulled the trigger at that point?
I'm really not sure. Perhaps it was my ignorance that helped me pull the trigger. If so, then I got lucky.
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$12.56 |
Change
0.010(0.08%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.227B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$12.41 | $12.75 | $12.40 | $4.851M | 386.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 3584 | $12.55 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$12.67 | 744 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3226 | 12.400 |
1 | 200 | 12.350 |
1 | 810 | 12.340 |
1 | 81 | 12.300 |
2 | 2800 | 12.290 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
12.670 | 744 | 1 |
12.680 | 744 | 1 |
12.690 | 744 | 1 |
12.700 | 744 | 1 |
12.840 | 1592 | 1 |
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