Apologies for having my text in bold, it just makes it easier to differentiate who said what.
From an actuarial standpoint, that's a totally flawed statement, because it looks solely at a time-stamped headline figure and fails to incorporate the necessary continuum calculus.
For starters, around half of those ~6,000 Covid-deaths would have occurred, anyway, as part of Swedens's normal death statistics:
-- Some of the covid deaths would have occurred anyway in ALL in comparator countries.
-- For the impact of lockdown vs non-lockdown you will need to compare the "normal death statistic" between nations.
-- Best to choose countries with as few confounding factors as possible. Given our conversations in the past, typical factors you've chose include population per sq km, climate, health systems, seasonality
-- I suggest the other Scandinavian nations.
So the "
excess deaths" in 2020
is running at 2,397, 4,370, 3,100, 2,366 - an average of around
3,000 more than prior years
.
-- This makes it 4-8% higher than previous years....
Not just that, but if one performs some sort of assessment of the area under the 2020 deaths continuum, by invoking a very crude form of the trapezoidal rule, using two intervals - the first being 1 Jan to 30 June (which coincided with the peak of Covid impact in Sweden) and the second being 1 July to 18 August, you get the following:
-- Really dodgy data collection there.
-- Note the time series for deaths in Sweden this year vs the average of the previous 5 years
-- The yellow line is the approximate date of the first coronavirus death in Sweden (11th march ?_
-- Statistically, Sweden started the year off as one of the lowest rates of death in the last 5 years.
-- And you've included the unusually low death rate as part of you "excess deaths" -- that is so wrong.
The 6-month interval that coincided with Covid saw the death rate running around 3,050 higher than previous corresponding periods. On a daily rate, that works out to 13 extra deaths per day.
-- See above, you've included an 10 weeks of an unusually low death rate as covid deaths.....this is wrong.
But in the past 7 weeks, deaths in Sweden are running at around 480
below
the levels that they were in each of the preceding years. On a daily basis, that equates to about 10 fewer deaths per day.
-- as they were before the first covid death.
-- in and of itself it means nothing, particluarly when the year was on trend to be one of the lowest death rate years in the last 5.
So clearly, what has happened in Sweden is that statistically meaningful number of the deaths that would have occurred in one period, were brought forward in a prior period.
-- Actually, I don't see any statistics in the above, sorry.
And, anyone who is remotely numerate, will know that every day and every week that the trend of the past 7 weeks continues, diminishes the net Covid death count in Sweden.
-- It's true, but it's an unresaonable assumption - your assumption here is that nothing will change. With Covid? Really?
Moreover, one doesn't need to be too smart to be able to arrive at the conclusion that if the current "negative excess death" trend remains intact for a just another month or two, it would mean that the death rate from Covid would, over the full 2020 year, be statistically no different to any other years.
-- You have calculated the excess death rate incorrectly
-- You cannot add an unusually low death rate from a non-Covid period to covid excess deaths.
And none of that has ANYTHING to do comparing the impact of a non-lockdown to a similar lockdown case.
Lets have a look at excess deaths across the Scandies...
-- Furthermore
Source: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
-- Note the scandies here, Norway, with it's lockdowns has NEGATIVE excess deaths.
-- Once again you have failed to compare any sort of lockdown vs non-lockdown situation.
- You've taken a group of dubiously derived numbers, (non-covid period ), included them in the average for excess deaths, and, without any sort of comparison, concluded "that's no too many deaths".
-- Your numbers have included non-death periods of an unusually low death period as part of the excess deaths.
- Excess deaths for Sweden, as the large chart shows, are 6.5 times higher than the next nearest nordic neighbor.
- You've finished by flourishing an unfounded assumption.
