nothing new for a while!, page-38

showman,

Interesting that you call a 25-30% drop in IO prices.

If we cast our minds back to the 22/10/08 UMC released their "Project Development Study and Preliminary Financial Model for 64.5 Mt high grade DSO Marra Mamba bedded iron ore"

Their base case was "price levels less 30%" which resulted in an NPV of $1.452B.

even allowing for a "Price less 35% in 2013 instead of less 30%" the NPV was still $1.358B

assuming that the IO price will be less 30% in 2009, and assuming 2010 is flat, we should see a recovery around 2011 and beyond.

UMC's ore will be hitting the market just in time to catch the next boom...
assuming this "future" boom matches 2008 prices, we are looking at an NPV in excess of $2.432B!!
ignoring any future dilution for now, that equates to a SP of over $15.

and thats just on the 64.5mt bedded ore...
and thats just the ore at Railway!!

throw in possible success at yandi/jumbo/railway east/and the others, and the bauxite and the potential upside totally supports my long term buy sentiment.

just my opinion of course, happy to be corrected on any of the above.