Great news for Australian shareholders considering MAE's huge proven (2P of 320 to date & likely to double - > 50% 1P) US gas assets. Perfect timing to maximise asset sale price in $US dollars.
"The Australian dollar may fall below $0.50 in the first half of 2009 as falling commodity prices and a shortage of funds for private firms tip Australia into a recession, according to Morgan Stanley.
Gerard Minack, a Sydney-based Morgan Stanley analyst, said Australia may fall into a deep recession despite an expected fall in interest rates to 2.5 percent from 4.5 percent and government spending to boost growth.
"I am more convinced than ever that there will be a recession, possibly a deep recession," Minack said.
"The economy boomed higher, so the risk is it will bust harder. Our global foreign exchange team expects the Australian dollar to fall below $0.50."
The forecast is one of the most bearish among private sector economists. A Reuters monthly poll of 44 strategists in December showed a median forecast for the Aussie of $0.62 in the next three to six months.
Minack said Australia's current-account deficit may balloon and could be more difficult to finance as local banks struggle to raise money abroad, as seen in the September quarter when global investors were a net seller of Australian debt.
Cheap foreign funds had played a key role in Australia's booming economy in the last few years, and had helped fuel its red-hot housing market.
He said Australia's terms of trade -- a measure of trade profitability -- is expected to drop to 2005 levels in the next 12-18 months. Minack now expects the economy to contract by 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of next year.
Minack said the global credit crunch had made it hard for Australian firms, which needed almost 7.5 percent of Australia's GDP in funding in the last financial year, to borrow money. This will force firms to either cut costs, raise equity, or go bust, he said. "Next year we will likely see a sharp increase in corporate failures ," he said."
MAE Price at posting:
35.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
