what time frame for 20cents, page-15

Picking a few numbers out of the air to illustrate a point - I do not pretend these numbers are accurate in any way:

Lets assume a "true" fair value a 18 months ago was about $3.50/share (somewhat less than the speculative SP it did reach).

With the sale already of some very good assets at poor prices barely covering purchase cost maybe we should reduce that to $3.00

With depreciation of other assets that they paid too much for in the first place maybe make that $2.50

With reduction in income due to reduced shop occupancy rates, likely bad debts from bankrupt stores, and sale of some income producing assets, and increased debt service costs maybe that should be about $2.00

Conversion of debt to capital maybe gives a bit of breathing space, back to $2.50 before extra dilution.

With the proposed dilution by 90% that is on the table, lack of dividends for years, then we reduce this to about 20-25c.

We are not out of the woods yet so devalue that by 50% to allow for this risk: (NB having the lenders with such a big effective equity interest probably helps reduce this risk a bit).

And we get - Hmmm - 10-12.5c - maybe the market has it correct after all.

I'm strongly thinking about putting my centro money into some very discounted miners or even centro's owner-to-be (the CBA) which have 50% discounts applied without anywhere near the risk.