dow futures , page-111

A few thoughts, Dow early this century matches recent Nasdaq closely, with Nikkei a second place with many similarities, but they're lows are still twice as high as Dow/Nasdaq. Even though Nasdaq not representative of total US economy, it did contribute to Dow bubble in 2000 but that was third rank compared to the others.

Dow/SPX 2000 peak is roughly around 30-50% lower than 29 Dow peak, dependent on calc method and yardstick used, yet to do some more precise numbers. The sideways action for SPX over the last decade (too much shuffling in DJIA) has let some steam out already, although real estate asset values continued to rocket. These are now almost back to a long term trend support line which can be drawn back to mid 70s lows.

At this stage, US unemployment is not quite rising as fast as in 1974 or 1983, but close. For SPX, log trend line from those market bottoms then to now, get low 600s, and can with difficulty get it down to mid 400s if use the long term 120yr DJIA 5.3%pa trend line instead of the 60yr 5.9% SPX approx best fit trend lines.

Going on historical info, a low in the 600s this year could be the start of the next major bull run, but this will likely be tested within the next half dozen years. Any lower than 600, it would be an almost certain start, but could easily take a decade to get above old highs.