dow futures , page-114

Fascinating & high quality thread guys. Thanks for the good read.

I'd like to contribute by posing a question which I haven't seen anyone really consider in depth:

Will not the course of the recovery in part be determined by how one of the biggest, wealthiest and therefore most influential demogaphics respond to the current situation? This demographic being the babyboomers.

Not much has been said about these guys except the obvious that there super funds have dwindled just before retirement but I haven't yet seen a good analysis of what this means for them and everyone else.

Remember these guys have (and I am sure still do have) a massive propotion of the worlds'(remaining) wealth, so what they do when they do it(and they historically have all done this as a herd in my view - as up till now a jealous generation x-er) will be very influential on the course of the recovery.

I was speaking to a colleague of mine today who is eraly 60's, well off and happens to be a brit, and we were chatting about what he's going to do when he (hopefully) gets his big paydirt sales commission (from an Indian government sales contract) which he's been chasing for a few years. For a long time he's been considering retiring and getting that luxury car he's always wanted but now he's changed his mind. He's got a married daughter with several kids and his son-in-law has a very good job in London in the financial industry (great up till now). My colleague is now considering instead of the luxury car setting asided some funds in case his daughter's family need support if the son-in-law loses his job.

This made me think that while he may not spend his money the way he originally intended, he probably still have to spend it, but rather than him, his daughter's family will spend it on necessities. Additionally, my colleague will stay on in his job longer than planned because its secure so that means he's not pulling his super out in 2-3 years but it may be 5-6. So the babyboomers children will potentially play an important role in determining what the babyboomers do with their money.

Now multiply that kind of scenario by millions and you've got an influential trend if that happens - and what will that do to the economy I wonder - stimulate or stifle a recovery. On the face of it I think it will contribute positively because these folks will continue to spend and they will defer pulling out their super funds, which would be a double-whammy.