dow futures , page-115

hey, just my 5 bob worth

some really good posts on this thread and brisvegas has done some good homework.

my opinion:

the HUGE amount of cash in the bail out fund has stopped what would of been an inevitable long drawn out contraction. There has never in the history of economics been as much money pumped into world economic systems as there has in one time with this bail-out and THAT WILL CHANGE THINGS. Any model, graph or other theorem used will not take that into account, so its not as useful.

I own opinion, the markets have bottomed and we are now in the very early stages of the next bull run.

I fully agree with Marc Faber's comments on CNBC not long ago - he said that IF the bailout money does not soon kick into gear and produce another boom, we will most certainly have the worst and most drawn out economic contraction in the history of money. I completely agree with him, however, the sting in the tail is, with all this 'new money' it will have an inflationary affect, but as we all know, inflation takes months, in some cases years, to work its way through an economy, so while the bail-out money will probably spark a boom, the resulting inflation will require some decently higher interest rates, so the house of cards may come crumbling down in about 5-10 years.

My own prediction - we'll see the DOW reach the dizzy heights of perhaps 17000-20000 over the next 5-10 yrs and then a really bad depression.

just my opinion, the markets do what the markets do - dictated by no man - trade well!