what will the day bring?, page-14

The bounce in the US on Friday was not at all convincing suggesting to me that their market is setting up for further falls. I'll be looking at going short again early this week between:

- $30.97 which is a 50% retrace of the last range down (33.16 - 28.79), and

- $31.49 which is a 61.8% retracement of the same range.

With the US closed on Monday and the report due on Wednesday morning (10:30am) there shouldn't be a lot to interfere with the SP getting into that range by the end of trading Tuesday.

Another important thing I noticed on the daily chart is that, after the November low, the first pull back during the 1st week of December was greater in points than the second pullback from 17 December to 23 December. The pullbacks or counter trends should get less as the rally progresses (in an ideal world anyway). The first pullback was $5.30 and the second was $4.01.

My point being that the most recent pullback was $4.37 assuming that it completed last Thursday.

So that doesn't fit if the rally were to continue. The pullback should have been less than $4.01 and it wasn't and that fact supports the scenario of the last peak being the intermediate term high and now lower highs are the order of the day.

There's also a head and shoulders forming and that should happen over the next week and a bit at most.