HUM 1.25% 40.5¢ humm group limited

FXL now and International expansion, page-40

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    FXL SHARE PRICE:
    Monday 31 August - Close of $1.205
    Friday Sept 4 - Close of $1.115

    Down 9% or 0.085c per share

    APT SHARE PRICE:

    Monday 31 August - Close of $91.44
    Friday Sept 4 - Close of $78.20
    Down 14% or $13.24 per share


    Personally I wouldn't compare the biggest international player to a new category entrant who hasn't even gone international yet. There is no comparison. But you insist on comparing APT to FXL and now I see why - I wouldn't like to have nearly 15% wiped off my anchor investment in only 5 days either. Kind of explains why you've come here - to pick on the nimble little guy whose about to go international for its shareholders at only $1.115 per share. But I guess anything's a threat when you've just had 14% wiped off a $91.878 share price.

    Re APT's share price drop, pointless trying to dress it up to look like an increase. It's well down from it's high from only 5 days ago. APT faces some serious headwinds for the first time. A bloated Nasdaq hemorrhaged last week on tech stocks because they were overpriced. But APT had already hemorrhaged all on its own. Why? Threat of big newcomers to the BNPL sector like Paypal. Didn't take much to lose 14% of your SP did it? And there's talk of Amazon's launching a BNPL of it's own too. So APT's SP may simply recover, or just hover or drop even further. Only time will tell.

    I'm not sure if you know, but Morningstar have been issuing warnings about the APT share price being overpriced for some time now. Their conclusion:
    "A circa 2% net margin on high receivables turnover should generate high return on equity. But to maintain that rate of net margin, APT must maintain high sales volumes in the face of more direct competition and the regulatory scrutiny from transacting with increasing numbers of retail customers. It is also reliant on lenders and shareholders willing to continue to provide it with funds to finance its receivables growth." Basically to prop it up with further capital raises.

    Morningstar values APT at $25.50 with a strong SELL advisory note against it and advice to "skip the Afterpay party for now."

    Meantime, in my personal opinion, FXL is the best value BNPL on the ASX.

    Share price of a mere $1.115, and it's about to go international. AND a share price bargain for a company that already makes substantial profits. That already has:

    2.3 MILLION CUSTOMERS IN AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND & IRELAND
    172.3% online growth
    17.2% volume growth
    $2.48B transaction volumes
    15.8% receivables growth

    I know whose shares I'd rather hold right now and it's not Afterpay.
    Last edited by KiwiCheek: 05/09/20
 
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