Agreed on a few fronts:
1. Feasibility study as shown in November 2019 preso was for FY2020 to represent $208m in revenue so i think given Covid if we can get to $190-$200 this would be fantastic but this doesn't include any of the additional bolt on's such as Interchecks and new acquisition but i think both would be negligible for 1st 6 months of FY21 given integration e.t.c.
If we can hit circa $60m+ EBIT then this puts us on a Market Cap of $2.4B (based on current 40x EBIT) and based on current share price of Circa $3 it is around $1 or $1.1b. e.g. share price should at least double to $6 and probably a little more say $7 or $7.50 which is not unreasonable given the growth runway and........conversion of revenue to cash at such a high rate
2. The upside once Covid dissipates will be quite quick for a few reasons; Travel cards at high margins will increase as a segment although i note that Europe is already back travelling in some capacity. You would think this would be at 25% - 33% and will gradually improve towards 50% by years end. This represented 15% of PFS revenue so even at 50% at a high margin will have material effect
Just remember that whilst the sky fell in over last 3-6 months, were still here with $100m cash + it has also made the company expedite some FY21 and FY22 projects in terms of integrations, acquisitions, cost saving measures to really pump the growth
I do miss seeing some frequent price sensative market announcements but management have advised that they will only do this moving forward if the impact is > than 5% which is quite difficult to do now given our size. What they could do is either make a monthly announcement regarding GDV in very high detail like TYR and Z1P or they could make some smaller announcements such as 'We wish to advise Simon Property Malls has begun selling EML products again' noting that Simon would be 15% of Malls Segment within G&I. e.g. its 15% of the 50% contributed for malls in G&I + this is new business YOY so its essentially direct uplift at 600bps
For now, the share price will continue to languish until we have further announcements. Next up will be the USD$8m seed funding for project accelerator which we should know in the next 2 weeks
(20min delay)