Jimmy it was a good day son. Glad to see a green day and the vibe pickup on this forum.
On the surface, it was only confirming what we already knew to an extent but I think it is a good sign they are ordering more before our first shipment for only one product with still 3-4 others to come hopefully by the end of the year. For Dr Behr that is! And that is not currently included in the current deal. Can you imagine when the market wakes up and sees this news flow through?
I was looking at what to expect this upcoming quarter revenue wise and came up with this....Anybody else feel free to add your thoughts.
July 2020
$468,000 NZD (CONFIRMED) = 71% of last quarter revenues already. ($660,000 for June Quarter)
IMO they are including the guaranteed contracts with SMB & GoodHealth in this reported figure but they havent confirmed that 100%. If not that’s crazy.
· Dried Ling Maw – Ad Hoc Trial Order (New Hong Kong client) = $148,000
· Mussel Powder – Ad Hoc (New European client) = $58,700
· Astaxanthin Trial Order (New Japanese client) = $Not Disclosed, assume $0
This leaves $261,300 for our guaranteed contracts.
· Frozen Ling Maw – Recurring (Super Milk Baba) = $Not Disclosed – but its obviously under the reported average of $360,000 per month which means there will be an extra 100k+ lurking in a future month.
· Oyster Powder – Recurring (GoodHealth) = $Not Disclosed but average is $33,333 p/month
· Random FMCG Online Product Sales = $Not Disclosed, assume $0
August 2020
$393,333? (UNCONFIRMED ESTIMATE)
There has been no confirmation in any releases yet about any additional one off orders for Ling Maw or Mussel Powder like we seen for July. We also are unsure about any ad hoc FMCG online orders.
Keep this in mind though - Aldo did say a week ago that DEMAND FOR DRIED LING MAW HAS PICKED UP!
If we assume ONLY the averages from our guaranteed revenue streams then:
· Frozen Ling Maw – Recurring (Super Milk Baba) = $360,000
· Oyster Powder – Recurring (GoodHealth) = $33,333
September 2020
$450,933? (UNCONFIRMED ESTIMATE as at 09.09.2020 with still 3 weeks left)
· Frozen Ling Maw – Recurring (Super Milk Baba) = $360,000
· Oyster Powder – Recurring (GoodHealth) = $33,333
· Mussel Powder – Recurring (Dr Behr) = $57,600
So to put this into perspective, lets look at the last 2 quarters and show an estimate Sep quarter figure.
March Quarter 2020 = $219,849 NZD
June Quarter 2020 = $660,000 NZD
September Quarter 2020 = $1,312,266? NZD
Important points:
- Was there any revenue from the Japanese Astaxanthin Trial Order?
- FMCG Online sales in July? This would reduce the SMB figure further which means more will be made up in future months as part of our SMB deal.
- August 2020 – Aldo mentions demand has been strong for Dried Ling Maw but it hasn't been included above.
- For August/September we are assuming Averages of Frozen Ling Maw & Oyster Powder deals. This could be less or it could be more. What we know is, if its less each month this quarter it only means the future months will be way over the averages….It has been mentioned about seasonality before and fluctuating demand.
If we agree that this quarter is setup to be a cracker then what about leading into the end of the year?
- Demand for Dried Ling Maw picking up post covid and you would think Xmas would create more demand naturally.
- Dr Behr deal is said to expand products into Undaria (Seaweed), Oyster Powder, Oil extracts, Marine Collagen Powder. All currently sitting outside the guaranteed 1 year deal and income of $518,000 NZD.
The revenues for December quarter will naturally improve again with WHAT WE KNOW CURRENTLY.………but what happens when they formally announce new Price Sensitive information?
US distribution agreement impending. If this is a Dr Behr type deal. Wow!
Could we enter into Japan as well before 2021?
Oh and what about the 2 top 10 Chinese Pharmaceutical companies?
The need for the equipment is making sense!
My opinon only, not advice. DYOR.
GLTA.
(20min delay)