SF@HC, came across Wyckoff on this forum a few years backs, so thank you whoever it was that posted commentary about what moves the market? and what is smart money?Wyckoff answered those questions for me and helped me understand what is going on way out of my control in the dark and secretive (and some might say evil) reaches of the universe.Before I go on with my thoughts, a little disclaimer for moderation purposes – these are my thoughts and opinions only, I cannot substantiate any of it just like I can’t substantiate the theory of relativity or that any manipulation of the universe occurs. My thoughts are what I have observed and what I personally think only.They are not for advice, or persuasion of others. I have no motive to influence anyone other than myself with these thoughts. Now that’s out of the way.
Wyckoff puts forward the thought of the ‘Composite Man’ or ‘Composite Operator’ (or ‘Composite Maggot’ as I like to call it/he/she/them).As Wyckoff puts it, someone behind the scenes directing the play to the disadvantage of me and advantage of them, all in the objective of getting my shares or anyone who sells whether by nature (enough profit, I want to sell to do this now…) or stealth/spook/fear (I gotta sell or I will lose….). Plays on herd mentality and emotions. No plays are the same, its all smoke and mirrors, nothing in the universe is as it appears, masters of disguise, you don’t know it’s happening, until you think…hmmm that’s odd, why did that happen, then something else happens, and dots start to be joined. They are in, made the money and out before you know it – then you join in and it collapses! If it talks like a maggot, walks like a maggot, smells like a maggot, and looks like a maggot – it probably is a maggot.Lots on the forum talk about shorts, manipulation, algos, bots, can’t prove anything, but you know something is amiss – it’s maggots at work, bless their souls.
Anyway, I digress, what do I think is happening (only in my opinion) – what do maggots want? Do they want to own or control the company? No, I don’t think so – too much hassle, existing top 20 shareholders wouldn’t tolerate it – seeing their supply of the most wanted mineral on earth that is critical to their business needs go to someone else – no. If it got out re takeover, SP would go through the roof to protect status quo – it would make it uneconomic for the takeover to take place – no. So, what do they want? PROFIT, big fat maggot profit.Spend a couple of years on campaign, spend 100s of millions accumulating, then wait/assist? SP four/five + fold – not a bad few years work. All in my opinion. How do they do it? Ah, that’s where Wycoff comes in – stealth, smoke and mirrors, testing, bull and bear traps, supply and demand, algos, bot, more and more testing of supply to make sure there are no lose shares in lose hands, etc. They use all sorts of events to achieve their goal – good news, bad news, world events, all sorts of thing to disguise the accumulation (Wyckoff calls the main ones ‘buy and sell climax’). Covid 19 was a gift for them.I will not go into too much more detail as to how they do it as it will get me in moderation trouble again like the last time I tried to explain what was happening (about a yr ago). You just got to think like them to think of some of the things and ways in which they are probably doing this.Its all in my opinion and thoughts only.
Where are we in the cycle – hard to say – somewhere near end of accumulation (end Phase C start D?) almost at the start of mark-up (my trigger for mark up starting would be get through 0.41) – don’t know - several signs-of-strength, then beaten back – several back tests to test supply – supply/vol over last two three weeks has decreased – the struggle between bull/bear within narrow range, lots of doji – shorts decreasing – raw material stockpiles depleted – good news coming (POSCO?) - restocking MUST start soon otherwise no battery grade LiOH in any quantity to feed 167 gigafactories coming online – Li price bottom/turn and high potential for price spike due to under-supply – brine problems (water, sovereign risk, 1st nation issues) - an electric revolution powered by Lithium which is UNSTOPPABLE, due to investment sunk in the supply chain and climate change. All this to me points to accumulating the last shares they can – shake that tree my man - while trying to get their shorts out before the preverbal hits the fan and there are maggots flying everywhere and it sort of looks like throwing spag against the wall in a Mr Bean sort of way ie. where he paints the room by exploding the can of paint.
Enjoy your read and interpretation of Wyckoff.He’s way up there with Dow and Elliot.A very wise man. And yes, I needed to take a few lay downs between reads – and you will still be reading it in ten yrs.Cheers.
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