Just reflecting on @TechFan20's recent post (that I can't seem to find... but thanks to @fullmetal100 on the FB page)
"While we wait, thoughts on valuation of Mesoblast:1) Sure there is uncertainty, nothing is for sure, but here are some back of the envelope thoughts: lets assume $10,000 per dose of Remestemcel-l (which should be conservative).2) We know Ryoncil for SR-aGVHD is schedule for FDA review by/before Sept 30. Given the 9-1 committee recommendation (and it is already successfully on the market in Japan for years), it seems like a slam dunk. So if we assume 6,000 cases at $80,000 per case, that is $480M in annual revenue. Assume 40% to Lonza. Leaves Meso with $288M in annual revenue, assume 10x valuation (given the huge growth opportunities), $2.88B valuation for this indication.3) Remestemcel-l for COVID19 ARDS, lets look backwards (to be conservative), given 191,000 deaths in the US thus far, if remestemcel-l could have been given to half, that is 95,500 cases at $20K each, $1.9B. But think about how many lives would be saved. Lets value at 3X = $3.438B.4) There are 150,000 cases of ARDS per year in the US, assume double to go world wide, assume Meso gets 75%, at 5X = $13.5B valuation.5) Sure there are also COPD, CROHNS, Back, and today we learned of Medically Refractory Ulcerative Colitis. All huge growth opportunities. Im not going to try to value these today.Total 19.8 billion. This is 10X todays market cap.
"Truth be told, this scenario is actually not far fetched.. even conservatively speaking. At this stage, the upside potential is way greater than the downside risk! Realistically speaking, it’s at worst a ‘hold’ right now, hence our daily HODL mantra but for the daring, even at $6, it’s still a massive discount to where we are going to be. Let’s say you were given the opportunity to buy APT at $6 now. It’s a no brainer! DYOR PLEASE.
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