gold $us880 .. , page-62

Cheers Sharpshooter,

The Big Debate is whether we end up with deflation or inflation.

I agree with your proposition that we are presently in disinflation. I suspect that the US and maybe Europe might slip into pure deflation for maybe a quarter, as a result of the fall in oil prices, in particular. What inflation statistics do not capture at all well is collapsing business activity, as they only calculate price level information, and say nothing about volume.

After a brief deflation, however, I suspect that this is where our crystal balls part company. That's fine with me: I still read lots of deflation arguments and take them seriously. They just haven't quite swayed me at this stage. Having said that, I can see how many people find them highly convincing.

Cheers,