Andrews curfew credibility just been shot to pieces by the authorities, page-42

Yes it was modelling that assumed no improvement in contact tracing, but I beleive it also included aged care cases as well. So in effect the modelling didnt 'back out' the aged care cases which you could argue are in isolated circumstances becausr they're not walking around the community.

There are about 1200 actove cases in Vic, bit over 600 in aged care. The actually known active virus in community is quite low compared to the peak of many thousands. At only a few hundred cases and now well under 50 a day, tracing should be able tl ring fence it. We can only hope the DHHS ineptitude subsides.

In terms of stage4 extension. It looks like regional vic will move forward this week, but still quite restricted. At least its a start. In terms of Melb, no likely movement to JUST STAGE 3 until Oct 26 and only if average of 5 cases for a fortnight. Then stage 3ish flr a further 4 weeks in from Oct 26. I

It is bonkers, the entire NSW economy is basically open under worse average than that, and has been for two months. I can understand caution, but the road map is a joke. Andrews has had us locked down for 10 weeks yet only last week seemingly takes major steps to improve tracing.