MEL 0.00% 0.5¢ metgasco ltd

Ann: Metgasco Successfully Completes SPP, page-102

  1. 6,561 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 962
    Barry has got it about right. With circa 550m shares on issue (excluding options); the BYE holding looks like this (assuming they've still got 39m):

    25c - $9.75m (1.77cps)
    30c - $11.7m (2.13cps)
    35c - $13.65m (2.48cps)
    40c - $15.6m (2.84cps)
    45c - $17.55m (3.19cps)
    50c - $19.5m (3.55cps)

    The company also has cash. I'm assuming the placement cash has been absorbed by Valie costs, and that the SPP cash remains. As such:
    2.6m = 0.47 cps.

    We then have Vali. VEN's presentation on 30/4 saw their share valued at $35-40m. We have half the share, so $17.5 to $20m net to MEL:
    $17.5m = 3.18cps
    $20m = 3.64cps

    However, that was before a flow test that clearly exceeded VEN's expectations. So, hypothetically:
    $25m = 4.55cps
    $30m = 5.45 cps

    We then have:
    Odin - if successful potentially larger than Vali
    Cervantes - P50 recoverable net estimate to MEL is 4.6m barrels. Every dollar per barrel is worth 0.84cps. i.e. a valuation of $20 per barrel of 2P would value that resource at 16.72 cps...lots of water to go under the bridge before we get to that point though...
    ATP 2020 - who knows?

    In a nutshell:
    BYE at 30c, Vali at $17.5m,$2.6m cash and ignoring everything else gives us 5.78cps value.

    That is the absolute floor imho. Punters don't understand what BYE has got with their G2 well, haven't factored in the size of Vali, and have ignored the prospect of MEl self funding future operations from cashflow. Exciting.

    Please DYOR as I'm clearly bullish here.
 
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