*To Remind,
Focus of electrification will shift from China to Europe in 2020
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Sales of electric cars are expected to rise 60 percent in Europe this year, boosted by demand for new models such as the VW ID3.
The rush to electrify transportation will shift to Europe from China in 2020 as automakers and governments work to cut carbon emissions that lead to global warming, according to a forecast from BloombergNEF, Bloomberg LP's primary research service on energy transition.
In the report,
"EVs and New Mobility: Trends to Watch in 2020," BNEF analysts estimate that global car companies will sell about 2.5 million electric vehicles this year, 20 percent more than in 2019.
While China will continue to dominate the global electric car market, the country's decision to reduce subsidies will help shift growth momentum to Europe.
New models from companies such as Volkswagen Group will help Europe sell 800,000 electric cars by the end of the year, up 60 percent from 2019, according to BNEF.
"The long-term future is really bright, but in the short term we're expecting growth to be relatively slow," said Colin McKerracher, an analyst at BloombergNEF.
"You're still in the middle of this transition, from a market driven by direct subsidies toward one driven by a combination of real consumer demand and other big policy mechanisms."
Crucial to the rollout are the continuing cost cuts for lithium ion batteries.
Prices will hit about $135 per kilowatt hour on average this year, about 13 percent lower than in 2019 and 89 percent lower than a decade ago.
Further cost cuts will come as the scale of battery production increases and the design of battery packs becomes more efficient.
Public chargers will hit 1.2 million, up from 880,000 in 2019, as governments and energy companies work to expand the critical infrastructure.
This year could also bring crucial steps for the electrification of planes and boats.
While cars have been relatively easy to run on batteries, air and marine travel is trickier.
As pressure builds on airlines to reduce emissions, 2020 could see major investments in battery and hybrid technologies that could help the development of all electrified transport.
EU pushes for tougher 2030 CO2 targets for car industry
The European Union (EU) could further tighten its CO2 emissions laws for new cars, according to a draft European Commission proposal leaked on Friday.
The draft document,
seen by Reuters, purposes that the average CO2 emissions for new cars should be 50% below 2021 levels by 2030.
The current plan for EU countries is for a
37.5% reduction in that timeframe.
German daily newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reports the VDA, Germany’s influential equivalent to the UK’s
SMMT car industry body, has said it would firmly oppose a tightening of emissions targets beyond that already proposed by the EU.
Currently, the target is for a 40% cut of EU member states’ CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2030. That could be raised to 55% if the Commission’s proposal is adopted.
The more ambitious goals could help the EU achieve its goal of net zero emissions by 2030.
While relevant EU figures refused to comment on the leaked document, Reuters claims the Commission will make its proposal for a new 2030 target during this week, while a full European Parliament vote will occur next month.
Volkswagen outlines entry-level ID car and future EV strategy
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An electric city car is in the pipeline as a replacement for the Up, but SUVs will remain a priority
Volkswagen’s CEO has reignited discussion on an
entry-level compact electric car set to be cheaper than the
ID 3.
Speaking ahead of the unveiling of the
ID 4 electric SUV, Ralf Brandstätter said: “We're working on these concepts.
Of course, we have to take into account that lower segments will in the future be demanding EVs, and we're preparing concepts.”
Earlier this month, sibling brand
Skoda confirmed that its
Citigo-e iV electric city car had been discontinued to make way for larger models and new EVs, with its
Volkswagen Up and
Seat Mii siblings expected to meet the same fate.
There’s no word yet on a replacement for the popular but unprofitable city cars, but Brandstätter said: “We're working on concepts for smaller segments.
We will discuss it soon.
Cars in smaller segments are important and very interesting for us.”
Seat will next year begin production of its new
Minimó electric quadricycle.
It’s not yet confirmed whether that will be sold under a different name by other Volkswagen Group brands, but Volkswagen is considering urban-focused mobility solutions.
“At the moment, we're focusing on electric vehicles,” said Brandstätter. “Of course we have studied these last-mile proposals, and we have some concepts ready, but at the moment, there's no decision taken going to the market.”
Volkswagen is keen to emphasise the flexibility of its MEB platform, which underpins the ID 3 and ID 4 and will go on to provide the basis of the ID 5 saloon, ID 6 SUV, ID Buzz van and an as-yet-unnamed model from new development partner Ford.
A small electric sports car,
as reported by Autocar in February, remains on the cards.
Brandstätter refused to give details but said: “MEB is a very versatile platform.
Year by year, we will inform you which kind of cars are possible.”
Volkswagen's ID R electric performance car range is set to be topped by a Tesla Roadster-rivalling coupé/roadster arriving in 2025.
Volkswagen’s commitment to building 26 million EVs by 2029 remains unchanged in light of the coronavirus pandemic, with planned investment in e-mobility across the Volkswagen Group now totalling €33 billion (£30.2bn).
The launch of the ID 4 represents the start of a shift to electrification for Volkswagen’s burgeoning SUV line-up.
Boss of e-mobility for the brand Thomas Ulbrich said: “In 2015, we decided to push the SUV market and start our SUV offensive. The ID 4 is the next milestone in this transformation to e-mobility as Volkswagen’s first electric SUV.
“The ID 4 stands for carbon-neutral mobility and will mobilise millions, because it's a real global car. It will quickly become a top model, not in a niche, because the market segment is becoming more and more important.”
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Food for thought
GLTAH's
Frank 