one picture that tells us the story to date, page-13

yep Shakespeare and a few others I have a bunch of specs where my holding is that large i couldnt sell if I wanted :)(like allot of other folks) so I have elected to close my eyes for a while and let this 2-3 year period pass

Ironically my earnings in other areas is going gangbusters so the de focus on trading has been fortuitous

On gold I have read allot of the debate on both sides There are virtually no one at all that is truly ahead. Folks like Peter Schiff , Marc Faber, Doug Casey, Jim Puplava, etc have predicted the crash and done their clients dollars anyway. Some of Schiffs clients have lost 70% (I know them) I have been in daily contact with Bud Conrad from Casey for a decade and a few of the analysts that work for some of those mentioned above. The inside insight tells me there allot of very talented folk doing it really tough in these conditions

The only ones that have really won on gold are the hard core goldbugs who hold the physical asset. I have probably done a 1000 hrs reading on debt deflation over the last 6 months . I have certainly read every major things thats ever been published on current conditions.

The real risk is that gold may really explode. My read on this risk is that manic central control that most of the worlds governments seem intent on will come done like a vice on gold through regulation if it gets anywhere near 2k let alone 5k.

I wouldnt be surprised to see gold speculation, trading, price and tax regulations be introduced globally as part of other asset control regulation. If this gets as ugly as I and few other think it will the only folks who will benefit from gold will be the folks that have secured privately.

Looked at from the fiat puppet masters point of view gold threatens fiat and if really starts to threaten the paper currencies the fiat addicted central bankers well effect draconian laws to defend fiat

If you really study to history of commodity collapses you find that while gold does well during deflation all but the strongest miners will collapse. In 1920 70% of the worlds total mines closed in 2 years.

Folks this is serious stuff if you think you have a magic formula you kidding yourself some of the best in the business are scratching their head.

One of the guys thats made the best calls to date Robert Pretcher thinks the DOW is going to 4000 and gold might touch $200. His study of deflation says that when fiat fails its ironically cash thats best because assets fall quicker than the value of cash. In his view the Fed will fail in its quest to reflate and a classic Minksy/Fisher debt deflation spiral will wipe out all asset classes including gold. Australia has 4 out of the top 10 worlds most unaffordable real estate markets, we could see 50% drops in real estate in Sydney, the Sunshine and Gold Coast.

Historically what happens if we do enter the "greater depression" is so much fear grips the market it forces all asset classes to fall so hard that it wont stop till all the leverage is deleveraged. Yes I understand this is incomprehensible to most folk but thats because non of us have lived through it, the historical precedents are definitely there for these kinds of events. Will it happen? No idea but its certainly moving toward possible. The entire west system of capitalism is collapsing, when we are finished western banking will be a government function, as will be auto industry, airlines and a bunch of other industries.

Is he right?? Well I have no idea although I am very respectful of his success to date.


This like yacht racing in a cyclone, some folks my choose to keep racing I am taking the sails down and heading to a safe harbor . I am focusing on building businesses that make revenue directly from the collapse and holding zero debt. I am buying real physical gold but view the miners as high risk. Anyone dreaming of getting rich with $5000 gold price through miners doesnt really understand the gold story in a deflationary environment, its a wealth preservation vehicle not a casino play. If it holds stays where it is it for the next 5 years it will have done brilliantly. If 20% of the miners are still in business in 5 years they will be doing well.

and folks who want to label any of the above as "doom and gloom" psychology save your breath :) I am neither pessimistic or optimistic. I dont claim to know the future but I am probably one of the best read folk on HC and unfortunately at least from a theoretical and historical perspective all of the above is possible and becoming more probable.

Whats basically unfolding is the complete failure of modern capitalism.