|i|i|i day, page-63

Just watched Tesla Battery Day presentation. I do not think it lived up to all the hype before it, which is not surprising to me. To my opinion:

• Elon Musk is not god. I have been a fanboy of Elon Musk for a long time, but that is not because I think he is right about everything.
• The probability of Tesla becoming dominantly competitive in battery manufacturing is much less than 50%. Information of new tech developments from other battery manufacturers is just as (if not more) exciting. When it comes to mass producing standard products in huge volume, my bet goes to Chinese and Korean people.
• LFP probably will be widely used in stationary energy storage (that is why I have stopped counting utility applications as part of the future spod downstream demand), but I doubt it will be used widely in cars. People do not want a car only for commute. They want just one car both for everyday commute and long-range traveling, even if they only need to travel long distance a couple of times every year. The reason for some people choosing short-range cars right now is just because the long-range ones are still too expensive.
• As for Tesla’s own Li mining, well, if Lithium is not a problem, why would they do that? But again, the probability of Tesla becoming competitive in Li mining is much less than 50%.

AIMO