I tend to agree with parts of your assessment but certainly not all. I don't see a risk of going back to 5c, unless there is a whole world market meltdown a la 1930's style. It is to me more likely an inflation risk ahead on the macro scale (after the next market saving stimulus), which would make our asset more valuable.
WE3 is something I don't see a huge upside in if all goes well, probably only a few cents reward. I also think that as the Kingia sands are theorised to get deeper as we go South East into the Dandargaran Trough they may not be as deep to the North of WE2 where we are drilling WE3.
A thinner section of gas bearing sands maybe disappointing to the market, while still finding gas there will be a positive. Perhaps one of the O&G experts could comment on this.
WE4 and WE5 are more important than WE3 IMHO, while I eagerly await the drilling in the future of SE1, which IMHO is where the big rise in the future lies.
Us humans need to take the types of risk that is happening here, as without taking these types of risk to gain resources, we would pretty quickly go back to the stone age, though this time with 7.8 billion people fighting over the last scraps. If no-one invests the holes don't get drilled, it is that simple.
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