Good to see some work on company valuations Antman, I like to opportunity to share ideas. see below my comments, happy to hear more comments.
LotusI decided not to invest in LOT, but i have looked at it Status: Developer in Mulawi Sorry I think Malawi is spelt with an "a"
Purchased an existing mine from Paladin in 2019 that was shut-in in 2014 due to low Uranium price. I found this quote on another website, thought it might be of interest "Kayelekera was discovered in 1982 by the Central Electricity Generating Board of Great Britain, but the project was abandoned in 1992 due to the then-poor uranium output. In 1998, Paladin acquired control of Kayelekera and open pit development began in June 2008."
$200mill CAPEX spent to assess and improve production up to 3Mlb/annum "Study completed by Paladin Energy estimated US$49.3ml capex to recommence production." taken from their last presentation. This is a low figure compared to other uranium mine starts and restarts.
They changed out a lot the board and technical advisers to Uranium and experts from Uranium One and Paladin. Good experience in the team.
Currently talking to utility companies (reactor operators/electricity providers) to come to off take agreements and re-open mine. Sorry, but talk is cheap and all the miners say they are talking to utilities.
Have battery grade/rare earth metal tenements in fifield NSW (off topic) No Comment
DYL (Deep Yellow Limited)I decided not to invest in DYL but I have looked at it.
Market cap: $75.2milliillion Explorer/developer - Scoping study. Scoping study is something they do before a preliminary feasibility study which is something they do before a definitive feasibility study, they have a long way to go.
Next to Paladin's Langer Heinrich, Rossing and couple other proven big uranium mines. Could be good for sharing infrastructure?
Will require a lot of capital to develop a mine. Not impossible to overcome and JB has as good a chance as anyone to raise the Capital. But still a hurdle.
Discussions of mergers and acquisitions for last 6 months but no news as yet. Again talk is cheap JB said it would happen in the first half of 2020, lets see what happens. These things dilute my confidence.
Personally, I think LOT and DYL have greater potential as they have low market caps and low share volumes, good leadership, capital to easily raise. A rising tide lifts all boats, but a low market cap doesn't mean it will one day big a big market cap.Potential is vague, they all have potential but how likely are they to achieve that "potential".
Boss resources is in Australia which a lot of people support, and are low cost producers but having to raise some significant capital to get the mine back into production and further share dilution is my main concern. Boss don't need to raise significant capital compared to other miners in their last presentation they estimate the capital at $63 mil.
Though discussions with a utility company turning to off take agreement will send any of these companies rocketing. If they get off take agreements, or maybe when will they get the off take agreement. Do they have a NPV, IRR and what are their break even point per pound of uranium? These are necessary to really check their viability, I haven't found any because they haven't done their DFS. At the moment JB is cruising on his reputation, hopefully he can do the same again as what he did for Paladin, he is in his 70s and that concerns me, past performance doesn't guarantee future performance.
BOE (Boss Resources) I did decide to invest in BOE
Share price: 7.2cents Market cap: $114.4mill Shares on issue: 1,584mill (1.58billion) Resource Size: 71.6Mlb (honeymoon) Status: Developer in Australia Mine currently shut-in on care and maintenance Low cost producer Could take up to 12 months to restart production Not a long time and I believe they said 10 months I maybe wrong, actually years ahead of DYL
Will require capital raising or off take support to restart. As with every mine but I'd rather be raising $63mil then hundreds of millions like a lot of mines.
Enhanced technical optimisation study underway - to improve production profile and save costs Current production rate of 0.88Mlb/annum. A report just out today which is great, a reduction in operating expenses to be weighed up against the increased capital spend. Duncan is reworking the numbers on the study, I look forward to the results. He really is a sharp and very knowledgeable CEO, actually the best I have seen in this industry, he has left nothing to chance, and Brandon Munro is not far behind. There is an interview on Smith Weekly between Andrew Smith and Duncan Craib his detail and knowledge of the business is impressive, you should watch it on YT.
Plans to increase to 2Mlb/annum increasing to 3Mlb
I have shares in 4 uranium miners and I think BOE is the best and safest. All comments are my opinion for discussion purposes only and not to be taken as advice.
BOE Price at posting:
7.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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