VPG vodafone group plc.

independent valuations, page-16

  1. 1,528 Posts.
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    Roadster I was a commercial valuer and still work in the property industry (not a valuer any more).

    I do think there will be varying problems in the US. There is no doubt about it. I am sure there will be a number of markets in the US in oversupply (similar to London). There will also be office markets in the US which kept a lid on supply and hence the vacancy rates will continue to be low, with some space coming to the market through sub lease due to company down sizing. (its being witnessed in the UK).

    I agree that space availability for small areas (sub 1,000sqm) may increase and people looking to lease that space at the moment may have some trouble. Roadster I would have a look at the development pipeline for the coming couple of years in the Sydney CBD, also look at the stock to market in the last couple of years. Sydney didnt have a construction boom like Brisbane CBD has in the recent few years. I think large space requirements would still be tough in the Sydney CBD. I think (note think) that you will find vacancy rates are still quite low in the Sydney CBD.

    I dont think that any property market will survive unscathed, however every different market has its own drivers etc. I think that pockets of Aus will hold up better than elsewhere in the world due to varying localised dynamics.

    UK commercial property (varying dependant on location, tenant covenant and sector) fallen 35-50% from the top to bottom.
    US ??
    Aus fallen 10-20% top to bottom.

    Where I do think the next problem will be is falling rents in some markets. It would provide a double effect when coupled with widening cap rates.. This is the problem to watch for next.

    Hope this has answered some of your questions Road.
 
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