Roadster,
Below is my worst case scenario nta calculation, assuming no goodwill, and 70% discount to properties it owns (considering Australian properties account for c50%, it is considered harsh)
This is basically a liquidation scenario. (and realising value of properties only, no goodwill attached to its fund management business-which is amongst top 30 globally. )
This could perhaps give you some comfort.
----------------
per June 30 08
AUD1.43bln of rental properties
AUD1.3bln of indirect property investments
121.1mln of cash
intangibles of AUD558.9mln (ignore this)
Total liabs: AUD1.67bln (of which Bank debt: AUD1.346bln)
total shares on issue: 1608mln
(1.43bln +1.3bln)*70%+121.1mln-1.67bln
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1608mln
A 70% discount rate is assumed to the book value of properties, and no goodwill value is assumed, on this basis, NTA will be 22.5cents/share
=22.5c/share
I wouldn't expect Australian properties value to depreciate by that much. Even the recent VCS forced sale received 78% of book value.
If we are paying significantly below that, why should we worry?
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