Ann: Appendix 2A, page-21

If ARDOB holders were at a profit, they most likely would have sold their options without the extra risk and trouble of converting. You would also need extra cashflow to covert your options that would be locked away for 2 weeks, potentially causing you to miss out on other opportunities. The people converting are most likely ARDOB holders who are at a loss and don't want to sell their options since the losses are magnified. Rather than selling options, you can covert and at least have a chance to redeem your investment by waiting for SP to rise. Many holders would have held on hoping for the options to rise in value but since SP has been consolidating and in a steady downtrend for 2 months, there hasn't really been a chance.

You also will have people who come in for a quick flip and the arbitrage is getting larger as we get closer to expiry. However, I do think this is the minority and judging from how weak SP action has been, by the time people convert their options, the arbitrage may no longer exist.

For the reasons listed above, I don't think there will be immense selling pressure from those converting ARDOB that would cap SP. Think the most important driver is still POS and I think we could start trending higher any moment now...