I'm not sure that we'll see the next announcement as a commercial deal. I think the next announcement will be "Third party verification" which will then be followed up with an announcement of a commercial deal at a later date, I'm thinking September, 2021.
What we know at this point is that WBT is ready to transfer to the FAB. XTX will say great, lets start with a trial run. If the trial run is good we'll begin the negotiation process for SoC products, we have up to 2,000 potential applications and we would like to license and then on sell. Make no mistake, the negotiation process will be a complex and a potentially long winded process. Why just deal with embedded when you can throw discrete into the negotiation process at the same time? I think expectations of this happening before Christmas should be reigned in (still, it is possible), but it's complex, and will take time. If it happens before then great, but my timeline is September 2021.
In the meantime, the memory module will be produced, (provided CV19 does not interrupt developments at Leti in France). Best outcome is March 2021 for the memory module and then 3 months for experimentation/verification by third parties before a deal is hopefully signed come June 2021. Once again, expect delays, deal likely around September 2021. If it happens before then great, but in this environment I think it's prudent to lower your expectations and be presently surprised.
Once the memory module is complete, and deals are signed, the next logical step in my view is to work on scaling down to 28nm and I think this is what Coby has eluded to in the most recent announcement. Let's not forget that while WBT is at 40nm at this point in time, future development work could potentially see the tech scaled down to 7nm.
Happy to hear others thoughts on what he meant when he stated that the agreement with Leti was to be expanded.
WBT is not something to be traded in my view, it's a sit back and relax proposition. Be prepared to hold for 10-15 years and watch the dividends roll in. No Divs in the first 7-10 years, its early stages for something that will most likely scale down to 7nm over time.
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