LTR 2.42% 84.5¢ liontown resources limited

KV future speculations, page-37

  1. 9,136 Posts.
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    My view:

    1. Selling now is unlikely, and the idea of selling for Moora will only essentially wash when there is a discovery at Moora.

    2. JVs - I doubt in mining the person operating the mine will be LTR. In a JV, the JV partner is who I suspect will operate the mine, and if LTR is part of the JV it will be the silent partner in that JV. You only have to look at how the Mt Marion mine was developed and and how Wodgina is proposed to be developed (given the move there to some form of hydroxide), and who the JV partners are and which of the JV partners is actually operating the mine (in effect) to understand why JVs are used. Similarly if you look at KDR, the predominant operator of the mine is going to be SQM IMOwith mining experience, despite equal share, not at the time KDR and now WES.

    3. So in effect others are also envisaging a CHN sale?

    4. Andrew Forrest never developed a nickel/cobalt deposit but did (Murrin Murrin) and after that did FMG. Had enough money but suspect wanted to make a mark, and TG has enough money as well and suspect he wants to make a mark also by been the silent JV partner in the development of CHN and LTR (the question more so is who would be the operator of the mine and that is your JV partner). Go out on a swan song that he owns something he has discovered and developed. This is obviously IMO IMO

    5. In mining SP becomes a function of EPS and P/e ratios (nominal) so not a function of NPV, and any dilution through a JV is not going to have an impact on SP in production is my point as long as PFS/DFS targets come in - why, in production SP reverts back to nominal metrics, whilst pre production it is a function of a discounted value (called NPV). There is enough JV arrangements around that show SP of teh resulting company in the JV goes up despite giving project up.

    6. If LTR were to sell Kathleen, I suspect they will be require to sell all their lithium assets - why, well as a buyer last thing you want is to potentially have a competitor right next door.

    7. Won't comment on the Congo jibes. Exploration plays are starting to pick up with the anticipate shortage arising and lack of quality deposits to develop, and the market realising Tesla's clay talk is crap. Hope the LTR PFS is a good one also.

    8. If applied the logic Tesla would never have arisen by EM - it is about risk and glory.

    All IMO IMO and a different perspective

    Last edited by Scarpa: 08/10/20
 
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