Starting to consider reducing my holding.
A few things are niggling at me:
- How much of the 1Q21 export growth is from the two NZ businesses acquired in 2Q20?
- How much is excessive restocking after the mar-apr collapse and sudden surprise surge in demand?
- What happens to the market multiple when a vaccine is released and the world travel market slowly starts to normalise?
- What happens to the market multiple when growth rates return to long term averages? Or even below long term averages for a few years after the domestic car holiday fad inevitably fades.
- What happens to the market multiple if 10 year gov bond rates rise at some point over say the next 5 years?
- What happens when tradies decide they probably should'nt spend too much more dough on their utes?
The large short-term step up changes in demand, market multiples and exchange tailwinds can easily become gradual step down changes as growth reverts to mean.
I am a bit of a worry wart, but further sustained risk to the upside has to be weighed against the potential for medium term downside risks.
I note the trailing P/E multiple is now higher that CSL's.
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Last
$38.05 |
Change
-0.590(1.53%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.127B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$38.35 | $38.72 | $37.68 | $3.976M | 104.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 100 | $38.02 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$38.05 | 54 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 226 | 37.990 |
4 | 207 | 37.980 |
5 | 201 | 37.970 |
4 | 122 | 37.960 |
6 | 203 | 37.950 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
38.000 | 1660 | 6 |
38.030 | 516 | 7 |
38.040 | 254 | 3 |
38.050 | 109 | 3 |
38.060 | 807 | 4 |
Last trade - 14.42pm 19/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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