A drop in momentum could be reasonably expected in the last shareholder update when Chris noted that deferred loan repayments had pushed out the distressed borrowers into Q1 2021.
My strategy here is to DCA the range. There was some fairly consistent movement between 0.25 and 0.28c for a while but that has since stabilized. I'm fairly greedy as I am to trade a 0.3c spread where as we're more in a 0.2c spread now so i'm missing out a little bit here.
Noting my previously mentioned detractions from Ci1 still remain. I think Jimmy is cautious with his acquisitions - he is using a lot of his own money after all given his stake in the business. Now feels like a good time to acquire up to 75-90% of your intended investment allocation. I'm just waiting to see what CH2 brings to the table.
Countrywise - Singapore has managed COVID well so restrictions there may be lifting soon which will help business. They have balanced restrictions with keeping businesses open so I anticipate some of the debt will be ok. I expect bad debts will see another uptick however, this is likely to be offset by new lending revenue growth.
Hong Kong looks to be very similar. Im not personally concerned about the Geo-political tensions but i expect Ci1 to simply keep chugging along.
Australia is where I see rapid scalable growth opportunity and the main reason I hold this. You want to look at the big banks and their sentiment around bad debt write-downs. If Ci1 via CH2 can help to prevent bank customers from going into bankruptcy and reduce the level of bad debt write-downs then there is profit to be made here. From what I understand we're in the calm before the storm - we might see an end to COVID-19 concerns by March/April 2021 but we wont start to see the economic scarring until around June 2021.
Given the opportunity cost of holding ci1 vs. other more exciting hype/growth stocks I expect to see Ci1 continue to underperform the market in the short term. However, given I do not consider myself a talented day trader I have little interest in taking chips of the table to try get short-term gains elsewhere. Hoping more people here do however, as I feel the price is currently undervalued already and would love to be able to buy more at a lower price.
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