thoughts on gpc / galoc, page-7

I think the difference here is the "Net Debt" Vs "Gross Debt".

The question to ask is "How much does GPC owe to financiers and shareholders - ie Gross Debt".

There is still around the $US10MM mark of "Net Debt" it would seem and as GPC is unable to pay back any shareholder loan funds the total of money owing to OEL should be roughly (ex interest) what it was when their last set of accounts were published.

From the notes to the annual report:
The Group has an outstanding loan receivable from GPC amounting to USD $15,205,233 as at 30 June 2008.

So the "Gross Debt" (including money owed by GPC to OEL) is around $US 25MM

If this is in equal proportion to Vitol then the total "Gross Debt" on a 100% basis is around $US 78MM.

So if my estimate of the field value (once reliablilty issues are sorted) is correct then OEL's investment in GPC is worth...

$US 150MM - Debt of $US 78MM x ~32% = $US 23MM

Another interesting caclulation is that if the revenues were to be used to pay off the total debt of GPC before paying a dividend to Vitol and OEL (@ $US 68k/day) it would be 3.14 years before GPC would pay a dividend. Obviously there would be interest on the debt and production decline which would delay this but hopefully the oil price would recover which would more than offset interest and decline.

p1000