$3.00 bottom, page-25

my take on ajl:

$300million realised in cash, and that is cash in the bank.
$50million will be used to retire debt.
$15millionish allocated for buy back.
Tax to pay on sale of assets? Anyone have any ideas on this, i am pretty sure they had these assets on their books at full prices, but lets be really conservative and say they will have to pay $40million in tax????

That leaves $200millionish in cash.

59million shares on issue this will be reduced to 55million or so.

Effectively the current market cap is covered by their cash, so at current prices AJL is a free call option on their business. What are we missing here? Obviously a big seller wants out, the thing i dont understand is that the seller knows that AJL is conducting a buy back for up to 10% of register, why dont these fools just call up the sponsoring broker and say mate we need to offload x amount of shares. I think that will be the key to finding a short term bottom in AJL, and i believe its going to happen before the results, ie in next couple days. If i see an offmarket transfer for a large amount ill be throwing more at it.

I just cant see what they could release in the results that would further spook the market, all they have to highlight is the mountains of cash in the bank lol, and the strong outlook for the CSG sector. I feel like i should be throwing all my cash and more at this thing at these prices. Effectively a free carried entry into a debt free profitable business.

On the flip side if i was the boker organising the buy back its in their best interest to buy back shares cheaper, so maybe they know their is a distressed seller in the market so they are playing games and are letting these idiots sell on market. I am actually thinking that this thing will dump in the next few days, especially with the us being down again. My plan is to fade into these dumps and look for any volume spike. I am pretty sure though that the next price catalyst will be the half yearly results, and or sale of their 15% interest in the QLD CSG asset. As soon as they announce sale of that asset this thing will spike $1.00+.

If I was AJL I would announce a special dividend or capital return to share holders, that would really put a rocket under the share price, but they obviously want to buy back shares cheaper. Im baffled I hope we have read this correctly knowing my luck some left field piece of news will materialize in the results and cause it to dump lol.

fingers crossed hey.