Ann: Gorgon Jetty Update, page-11

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20/10/20

19:59

Post #: 48247343
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Originally posted by madeinchina ↑

So, please don't shoot me for this potentially very stupid question/analysis:

Firstly, I took into account that we don't 'pay' anyone this money (except the awarded $35m), we just don't 'earn' it anymore. But then that got me thinking, how can they then claim 'no change' to the $1.1B as documented.

So... I had to do a bit of digging around and I interpret that as stated, there is no change to the $1.15B we've actually pocketed (am I reading that right?). What CIM was trying to get was the remainder of the agreed $1.86B plus damages. Instead, it only got $78m (-$35m out the door).

Now the $675m which is ostensibly plucked out of the door and labeled 'existing provisions'.

The closest I could get (stay with me here) was:

$1.86B expected - $1.15B delivered = $710m outstanding
$710m - $78m awarded = $632m
$632m + $38m as settlement = $670m

Considering most of the amounts are proceeded with (estimate/approximate) this might be our agenda. So, if all this actually makes sense. My take-home message is, we've only really 'lost' (haven't paid technically, or been fined - we're just not getting it) that $670m.

Or is this just 1hr's sleep post night shift delirium making me see things that aren't so?

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All that Cimic stands to receive is $43m ($78m less $35m). Beyond that it is all accounting adjustments.
The balance sheet equity is probably not worth paying too much attention. Nothing new in that as there are lots of companies which have small balance sheet equity.
Why would Elliott pay over $2b for half of Thiess despite low book value? Answer is : the value in Thiess is in the business. Elliot is paying about 7 times EBITDA of Thiess.

CIM Price at posting: $22.49 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Gorgon Jetty Update, page-11

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