The following survey of flags Trump getting the vote from 50% of Whites, 4% of Blacks and 30% of Latinos and 37% of others. The data suggests that Trump will get 35% of the overall female vote.
I am a little bit gobsmacked that 49% of people think they are better off than they were 4 years ago but it is what it is. Of more concern, 33% of voters are unwilling to take a vaccine. 36% see Trump as a unifying influence in comparison to Biden. I suspect that these cohorts overlap a lot.
31% of people say they have already voted.
My takeaways:
- Trump will lose the popular vote but not by as much as some of his opponents would like.
- Trump will likely lose the electoral college vote but only because most women don't like him.
- The Senate vote will be much closer, because conservative never-Trumpers and conservative Trump opponents may, like Bolton, withhold their presidential vote but none-the-less vote for GOP Senate candidates.
Some aspects of this election remain close.
Importantly, no consistent effort has been made to ensure there is capacity count a vast number of early mail votes. There is a good chance that they won't be counted by 7 November and that is when any Boogaloo moment could arise. ACB will be on SCOTUS by then but I wouldn't assume she would disenfranchise lawfully cast, correctly filled ballots. Originalists can be mechanical on such issues and looking to the intent of the Constitution when it was drafted my gut feel is that she'll say they should be counted.
