come on buyers whats wrong with 18.5c+, page-16

ON the weekly chart for all data these are my thoughts:

The current SP is well above the 50 and 100 day moving average (i.e. 9c/ 12c respectively) and has recently cleared the 200 day MA at about 15c. Each of these indicators have bottomed and apear to be moving upwards (or at least sideways), this distinguishing it from a similar scenario in late 2005 where the 200 day MA was still moving downward.

The volume by price indicator shows that most shares have been traded between 20-30c. Next is the 15-20c range followed by the 30-40c range. Trading below 20c represents less than 50% of total shares traded.

RSI is at about 70 and moving up.

MACD is at about 0 to slightly positive.

FAst stochastic is at 80

OK so what are my thoughts?

My view is that 20c represents strong resistance due to the number of shares traded between 20-30c. The 200 day ma supports an attack at 20c as it is currently at 15c and has been cleared.

Whilst the fast stochastic is indicating the SP is nearing a high, MACD is bullish as is the RSI. The latter two give support to the importance of the 200 day ma breach at 15c (this being in hindsight the best entry point).

With these indicators in mind I suspect that AAM is looking to break 20c as part of its new upward channel. After this I suspect it will firm through the 20c range up to first pout at which point it should move higher (especially is the POG is supporting this move).

Whilst the 20c level represents a challenge it will be supported by the 200 day ma, bullish MACD and RSI. The POG and general investor sentiment are other factors that will support this inevitable breach.

Current indications of a high, as suggested by the fast stochastic, are I think misleading. The Fast Stocahstic measure has been compressed at or near the 80 mark for a while, which suggest to me that this sustained upward pressure is creating support at current levels.

It is for these reasons that I see support as a function of the recent (month) trading range, this being between 15 and 17c. This is confirmed by the volume by price indicator for the last 12 months, which shows the majority of shares traded at or above 15c.

If a dip in the SP occurs I see it bouncing off 15c, with 14.5c representing and unlikely overshoot. Consolidation is probable at 16c on average, leaving it poised to launch on the renewed POG rise through 20c.

Happy to hear anyones thoughts on my thoughts as I wait in anticipation.

GC