over priced is based on your chart. I think that your chart misses the effects of the wealth effect created from the 70% that own property. baby boomers helping their kids. Also the house we refer to as median was top end 20 years ago, albeit on a smaller block.
- Record high pricess
ditto
- Record high pricess compaered to rest of world
actually in comparison to the rest of the world, the devaluation of the dollar has actually made aussie housing cheaper in comparison to the rest of worlds major currencies. But our 70% ownership to 30-40% res tof the developed world means that the exisiting home owners can ugrade to more expensive homes, beyond their incomes on the baiss of increased property prices of exisiting homes. This clearly demostrated that average mortgages are only 300k and even at 8% still affordable. The 100% increase in house prices was only matched by 50% increase in mortgage increases.
- Recesion
yes this is a concern, and hopefully the stimilus packages reduce the impact of the world on australia.
* people losing jobs
the jnauary stats showed that employment rose by a net 1200
* business's going bust * copanies going bust
yep, you are right.
* banks losing money
not sure which australian bank has lost money, profits have dipped, but buts are still very profitable and our top 4 are ranked in top 15 banks
- Lots of renters wanting out the rental market
a good sign of pent up demand waiting for confidence to return to market
- Lots of housing on the market
dont think this is right the number of house put on the market since 1 janaury 2009 has dropped when compared to 2008. there is no massive over-supply hanging around. lower end proeprties are selling very well. top end is a problem though
- Housing not being sold anywhere near as quick as it was over all
this correct, but the recent interest falls have caused the lower end to pick up as have auction rates
- House prices falling over seas (will effect imigration)
correct, but in terms of AUD, overseas money worth more so they can buy more, even with less money
- Housing cant boom like it has as it becomes out of reach of buyers, capping posible growth and disinteresting investors
if you already own a property, buying and selling in the same market just effects the change over price. And the kids of those that already own property will ensure that their is growth.
For the buyers you are referring to are ones who will never afford as they dont earn enough or what ever. this becomes an idealogical arguement of whether all people should own property.
as to disintereting investor, contrary the high rentals, the expected inflation should produce good returns.
- Investors from past decade profit taking on capital gains
not usre what this is referring to but a profit is a profit - better in cash but everything can be converted to cash
your cloud has no silver lining, well, not for the bulls anyway
the silvering lining in property is the fact that people define themselves by there house. the bigger the better, this simply fact means that people will continual upgrade homes creating a market. however, as growth stabiles to normal levels ie equal to wage growth, you just have to be smart in your investment strategy. but for a family man what he can aford will do as it provides shelter.
As to those that miss out there are many reasons such as dont accept that proerty is a good investment, they would rather rent to be free and enjoy life rather than a debt slave and rely on govt to provide housing. many pensioners are living below the poverty line because they didnt want to own a house. now we pay for the stuborness
