Hi eztrang,
Your statement that the POG "will certainly not be affected by the results of the US Presidential election" is pretty bold.
I see the following US election outcomes definitely affecting the POG:
In the event of a close win by Biden, Trump will not accept the outcome, which could lead to a very long court battle and much uncertainty.
In such as case, there will be a lot of civil unrest including possible massive street violence with deaths highly likely to be on the agenda.
In such a case this would make the chances of the Democrats and Republicans agreeing on a stimulus package very slim.
If Biden wins by a landslide, and Trump does immediately concede, the US financial markets will have to rerate very quickly, particularly with regard to energy stocks, which will come under severe pressure due to Biden's future climate change measures.
In such a case, trade deals with China etc. will come under the microscope i.e. Biden will probably want to reverse the damage that Trump has created on this front. This could lead to a US stock market rally as well as a rise or a fall in the POG.
In such a case, Biden will definitely change the way the US is handling the COVID-19 crisis. This could include the mandating of the wearing of masks, as well as at least a partial US wide lockdown. Even so, given the current circumstances, at least 350,000 Americans will die before the COVID-19 situation is under control, which will not happen IMVHO until at least the middle of 2021.
If Trump wins by a slim margin, anything can happen.
In such a case, there will also be a lot of civil unrest including possible massive street violence with deaths highly likely to be on the agenda.
In such a case Trump will feel emboldened, which means he will cause even more chaos, not only domestically, but also on the international scene.
In such a case, Chinese trade tensions will increase to the detriment of not only the US, but to the entire world.
In such a case, up to 500,000 Americans could die before the COVID-19 situation is really under control i.e. under Trump's command the US will take far longer to control the COVID-19 virus than under Biden's command.
Whatever the US election outcome, the US economy will probably be in a recession for most of 2021. Against this backdrop I see the following things happening:
Interest rates will remain at record lows for at least the next couple of years which should ensure that the USD remains weak, which will help the POG.
Gold will continuê to be a safe haven for at least the next 12 months.
Inflation is unlikely to rear its ugly head due to the sluggishness in the US and the global economy. Having said this, this is not necessarily bad for the POG i.e. with vast amounts of cheap money being injected into the US and global economies by the Central Banks, this will ensure that the normal adverse effects of low inflation on the POG will be more than offset (which is already the reason why the POG is currently so high).
I could easily add another dozen reasons why the POG could be affected by the outcome of the US election, suffice to say, that the financial markets hate uncertainty. For this reason alone, the POG should remain at very high levels for quite some time, which will be particularly good for Gold miners, both big and small, as well as for Gold exploration companies.
Cheers.
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