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treewallaby

548 Posts.

140

26/10/20

17:48

Post #: 48396794

Originally posted by bombersmadd: ↑
I thought i would give the DFS financials an update with information that has been released or changed since April 2020. Sn Price has shot through the roof, Nigel has stated the wedge drilling will result in an updated reserve of approximately 140Mt of Ore at a 0.3 to 1 ratio, project ownership has increased to 75% and the SEZ is likely to give positive VAT implications (assumed at 50% reduction).

Let me know what you guys think.... but from a distance the NPV and IRR like mighty fine for a re-rate come December !

Production Units DFS Oct-20
Material Mined - Ore Mt 93 140
Total Material Mined Mt 137.2 182
Revenue

Net SC6 Price (Assumption Price) USD/t 674 674
SC6 Production t 11,354,174 17,092,305
Net Primary Lithium Sulphate Price USD/t 7,355 7,355
Primary Lithium Sulphate Production t 938,321 1,412,526
Net Tin Price USD/t 9,955 18,500
Tin Production t 62,699 94,386
Net Artisinal Tin Price USD/t 9,955 18,500
Artisinal Tin Production t 12,659 12,659
SC6 Revenue USD M 7,649 11,515
Primary Lithium Sulphate Revenue USD M 6,901 10,389
Tin Revenue USD M 624 1,746
Artisinal Tin Revenue USD M 126 234
Construction Costs

Mine USD M 7.1 7.1
DMS Plant USD M 166.58 166.58
Primary Lithium Sulphate Plant USD M 178.62 178.62
Hydro Plant USD M 46.54 46.54
NPI USD M 30.88 30.88
Roads USD M 41.85 41.85
Port USD M 2.04 2.04
General and Admin USD M 22.27 22.27
Contingency @ 10% USD M 49.59 49.59
Operational Period Costs

Mining Costs USD M 761 1,009
Processing Cost USD M 1,944 2,579
Transport Cost USD M 3,153 4,183
Artisinal Cost USD M 76 76
G&A Cost USD M 361 479
Royalties USD M 536 711
Sustaining Capex USD M 92 122
Closure Costs USD M 19 19
Project Net Cash Flow Pre-Tax USD M 6,942 14,161
Project Net Cash, Post-Tax, All Equity Basis

VAT Tax Paid USD M 897 550
VAT Refunded USD M

Income Tax Paid USD M 2,344 3,109
Export Tax paid USD M 765 1,015
Import Taxes Paid USD M 29 38
Project Net Cash Flow Post Tax USD M 3,779 9,449
Project NPV 10% Post Tax USD M 1,028 2,570
Project IRR Post Tax % 33.15% 83%
Payback Period Post Tax Years 2.2 1.2

Base Case - DFS Based upon 60% Ownership
Updated - 75% Ownership, Increased Sn Price, 50% Reduction in VAT (SEZ), Increased Ore Reserve
Expand
Have been thinking a lot more about the base that has been building for months since June if memory serves. I don’t think $0.105 is all she wrote so to speak.

Change the candles to a line chart and we may have just finished Elliott wave 2 and about to commence Elliott wave 3, which would take us to $0.125 in my opinion.

Last edited by treewallaby: 26/10/20

AVZ Price at posting: 8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Production	Units	DFS	Oct-20
Material Mined - Ore	Mt	93	140
Total Material Mined	Mt	137.2	182
Revenue
Net SC6 Price (Assumption Price)	USD/t	674	674
SC6 Production	t	11,354,174	17,092,305
Net Primary Lithium Sulphate Price	USD/t	7,355	7,355
Primary Lithium Sulphate Production	t	938,321	1,412,526
Net Tin Price	USD/t	9,955	18,500
Tin Production	t	62,699	94,386
Net Artisinal Tin Price	USD/t	9,955	18,500
Artisinal Tin Production	t	12,659	12,659
SC6 Revenue	USD M	7,649	11,515
Primary Lithium Sulphate Revenue	USD M	6,901	10,389
Tin Revenue	USD M	624	1,746
Artisinal Tin Revenue	USD M	126	234
Construction Costs
Mine	USD M	7.1	7.1
DMS Plant	USD M	166.58	166.58
Primary Lithium Sulphate Plant	USD M	178.62	178.62
Hydro Plant	USD M	46.54	46.54
NPI	USD M	30.88	30.88
Roads	USD M	41.85	41.85
Port	USD M	2.04	2.04
General and Admin	USD M	22.27	22.27
Contingency @ 10%	USD M	49.59	49.59
Operational Period Costs
Mining Costs	USD M	761	1,009
Processing Cost	USD M	1,944	2,579
Transport Cost	USD M	3,153	4,183
Artisinal Cost	USD M	76	76
G&A Cost	USD M	361	479
Royalties	USD M	536	711
Sustaining Capex	USD M	92	122
Closure Costs	USD M	19	19
Project Net Cash Flow Pre-Tax	USD M	6,942	14,161
Project Net Cash, Post-Tax, All Equity Basis
VAT Tax Paid	USD M	897	550
VAT Refunded	USD M
Income Tax Paid	USD M	2,344	3,109
Export Tax paid	USD M	765	1,015
Import Taxes Paid	USD M	29	38
Project Net Cash Flow Post Tax	USD M	3,779	9,449
Project NPV 10% Post Tax	USD M	1,028	2,570
Project IRR Post Tax	%	33.15%	83%
Payback Period Post Tax	Years	2.2	1.2

Base Case - DFS Based upon 60% Ownership
Updated - 75% Ownership, Increased Sn Price, 50% Reduction in VAT (SEZ), Increased Ore Reserve

Running discussion on SP, page-33674

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