The pessimists in me thinks the Thai vendor will offer 4 cents for full takeover, a nice "fat" 33% premium to the current share price. But why would ASM sell and take a bloodbath?
1) The Thai Vendor could threaten let Star Vegas run out of cash and fall into receivership. He would then buy it back for a pittance from Megabank. He owns the land and after the fiasco last year who would dare bid against him for Star Vegas. We would get a doughnut in this scenario. This would be his legitimate approach.
Or
2) He'd just threaten to terminate the lease again. Again we would get a doughnut. This would be the mafia approach.
4 cents is better than a doughnut (i'm exaggerating because Aristo has some value but you get the drift).
Forget the potential upside, the spectrum of possible future outcomes is just too wide and the downside is significant.
Until we can clearly see the motives of the Thai Vendor, it is uninvestable (is there such a word?).
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