appropriate value? $1-68??, page-2

It is very clear that Deutche Bank have handled the Data Room process
"leak proof". The Market in general, and the "Insiders", are still guessing on the NXS / Crux Sale outcome; we have yet to see any "tell tale" market moves, the type that happened at the start of October 08, immediately before the NXS "crash" (about 10 million traded).
With a high quality energy asset like Crux... and when news eventually does leak, we can expect a market correction equally as sharp in the positive direction.

Shell no doubt are favourite to complete any deal with Nexus.
My impression of Shell, is they conduct business at their controlled pace.

An example being the drawn out Libra 2008 drilling, cost us dearly!
Then the drawn out yet to be released results of the Octantis Survey.
And the important Libra-1 logging results, we are yet to be fully informed!

Believing that there is genuine Buyer interest in the Crux Assets, OR Nexus the Company, then Nexus will achieve fair value for their Reserves, be it all the 122mboe ... or part of Crux; healthy competition between the Buyers should entice a bid somewhere near Fair value. The Price of Oil 2011, 2012 will be the guide to this end.
As per the current thread theme, my calculation of A$10 per BOE, is based on the lowest Broker valuation (Wilson closely followed by Bell) for barrels of oil equivalent.
It should mentioned there are few (valuation) uncertainties in this Asset Sale Process that may have a significant impact on the Sale; the MBOE figures that is being "promoted" for the De-risked AC/P23 Prospects......
* Auriga
* Caelum
* Plover
And of course the value that is being attributed to 15% of the Libra Field.

Based on the available evidence, I believe that about the $1.70 is what a Buyer will have to pay, per Share, for a Company take-over; that would probably satisfy "appropriate value".

And my personal preference for longer term value is the 35% sell down of Crux, netting A$300 Mil from Shell :) ..... I am not so sure of this point though!

Anyway about 12 days time and we will all be experts,

Lets hope for lots of GOOD LUCK...

SharpE

DYOR!