GBI 0.00% 16.0¢ genera biosystems limited

Ann: Appendix 4D Half Yearly Report and Accounts , page-2

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  1. 371 Posts.
    re: Ann: Appendix 4D Half Yearly Report and A... I'm back from my break and note that not much has bee posted on this thread since late Jan.

    Some comments/observations on last weeks half year report.

    All appears to be tracking well with respect to last major operational update in November (see CEO AGM presentation)

    PapType potentially 'best in class' for ASCUS smear patients versus Digene's HC2. This is very promising and if this can be validated by the April/May data, IMO we have a US$50 to $75m company on our hands.

    I note that the company states that it has 'an expectation that the results will be comparable to the pilot study'. I imagine that this is becasue GBI is drawing on the same samples as those used in last October's pilot study. They sourced these samples from the Royal Womens Hospital and now are just undertaking the same study but with 10x as many samples. GBI has been advised that this data set would be of sufficient size to generate 'statistically significant' results that would be acceptable to Australasian and EU regulatory authorities.

    Manufacturing on track with TGA audit in April.

    Partnership discussions advancing well. GBI states that 'a number of VERY SIGNIFICANT companies have SHOWN KEEN INTEREST' not only in PapType but in both of the platforms. GBI is not a one trick pony and this re-inforces my view and why a trade player may be tempted to buy the whole company instead of just licensing PapType.

    Deals are expected to be announced in Q2 2009 (ie. prior to June 30). Finally they say that MANY OF THE COMMERCIAL ACTIVITIES curently being pursued WILL come to fruition. I like this degree of certainty and note that GBI has thus far delivered on everything that it has said it will do since it issued its prospectus.

    I imagine that any partnering deal may involve a material upfront license fee and also the funding of a large proportion of GBI's overhead. Understanding from GBI's last Appendix 4C on its cash position it had $2.5m at January 1 this may mean that no additional capital needs to be raised and hence we can be confident that GBI will only ever have approx 56m shares on issue fully diluted.

    In other words a US$50 to $75m value infers $1.40 to $2.00 per share should GBI do as it is on track to deliver, that being a "BEST IN CLASS" test for the detection of cervical cancer in ASCUS patients. Remember Thirdwave sold last August for US$580m.

    That leaves me with a final point around the sale of the company. There is a high probability considering what GBI said in the Chairman's address to the AGM last year (last page) that they are setting this up for sale this year. A US$50 to $75m cash offer from one (or more) of the VERY SIGNIFICANT companies that GBI is already in discussions with would be a small bolt on acquistion.

    The skill will be turning a partnering deal/licensing negotiations into a competitive auction process at the right time.

    cheers

 
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