My take on things :
I have been reflecting over the weekend on risk vs reward commitmenttaken by investing in Mesoblast.
If the Phase three heart trial fails the share price will settle lowerin my view, whereas if the trial proves overwhelming efficacy, it will probablyrise threefold pretty quick and then seven to tenfold as people understand theimplications, neither Entresto nor the SGLT2 converters like Farxiga havemanaged to show any real improvement in mortality in Grade III our IV CHFpatients. If Rexlemostrocel brings home the bacon, I can’t see much sparechange from a US$10bn market cap.
As for Covid/ ARDS, all the serious competitors with repurposedmedications from the monoclonal antibodies, convalescent plasma, IL6antagonists, hydroxychloriquine, remdesevir, etc have all flopped in theirRCT’s in reducing mortality for ARDS patients (let alone the p/f ratios below200 group we are targeting) It looks as though our therapy might just haveadvanced to the front of the queue, now that Remdesivir and Eli Lilly haveestablished such a low bar for Emergency Use Authorisation.
I believe the FDA should step up to the plate and not get in the wayanymore with the NIH full steam behind us as the pandemic is in crisisproportions, we just need the clinical the trial results, if they confirm ourefficacy shown in compassionate use trials we could be knocking on the door ofa AUD $20 share price in short order.
Dr Itescu is not stupid, look up the prognostic indicators paper in theLancet, we can tell by the Apache IV grading system which predicts mortalitywith incredible accuracy, the likely deaths in the control group, Silviu probablyknew from the biomarkers required to enrol exactly what the control group rangeof mortality outcomes is likely to be.
All we have to do now is reproduce what virtually every propermesenchymal trial in several continents has demonstrated, Efficacy we alreadyhave shown a good safety profile
I give it about a 40-50% unscientific chance of an early stop at 45% forthe Covid/ARDS trial in early November and about a 80% chance of a successfulCHF trial, with those odds I will take my chances and hang in there.
Remember the first rule of investment is capital preservation & marketconditions are treacherous thanks to the US election & the World Covid-19Dalemer
ST
(20min delay)