PharmAust - Now that is impressive, page-117

I wonder if the presentation for the AGM is coming out today.. Maybe. Might see those pretty graphs and doggy photos we all yearn for.

These are unusual times.

Dip in Share price:
The commentary on HC is mostly about quick return on investment and so, IMO, this dip is related to those who had this short term strategy moving on to where they perceive they can turn a buck faster. Each to their own and I wish them well. The top share holders seem to be holding firm and most got in when the SP was significantly less so cashing in would be attractive, but they are not doing this - more looking for the longer play and accepting the highs and lows on the roadway. I do note that even amoungst those moving on, few doubt the core product and its potential. I do note some doubt the BoD's ability to move from where they are now to boom for investors. Ok, opinions and choices make the world interesting.
VetDeal:
The reality is the Elanco option was exercised and fell through. Reasons for this can / may be plentiful and Elanco would probably have given PharmAust the sanitised reasons for not proceeding. I am only looking forward and trusting the BoD have learnt from the past. I think there are a long list of considerations that would have been in play for Elanco as these things come with formidable due diligence. They came up with a "not now" result. We have seen the performance options for Dr Mollard essentially swap from deal with Elanco to deal with anyone. Fine by me. I think Elanco have many things, on top of covid impacts to their revenue and the merger and the legal troubles, that would see them take a far more conservative immediate future. The trials for us were definitely impacted by Covid. All in the past. Vets still choosing to treat on compassionate grounds is a reassuring factor to me. Bring on the news about the subsequent formal trail and next 8 mutts. I don't care for the rear vision mirror (i know others want the info but i prefer the leadership to know and the market not to know). We know PharmAust has already engaged with other players in this market so see where this goes. Landing a deal would be a real boost in every respect....
Covid:
This is likely to get expensive should the results come back in Dec to recommend organoid testing. I expect to see major pharma pay attention to the results post organiod testing - helped by the lobbying happening from within PharmAust. A partner arrangement would remove a load of barriers here & expedite outcomes. The timelines shared by the BoD for Covid and based on what they know / have secured / have confidence in today don't seem to be ambitious, more realistic, not overly conservative either. Covid was never the main game but the data grows and the credibility of the solution increases. Still a very real risk this will be a no go. I am very unclear on the state of the patents and what they actually do to protect our solution in this space and how they enable PharmAust to proceed with confidence that this will ensure great returns for SHs. I do see the viral use being added to the long list of value propositions even if Covid does get a little wobbly. The hypothesis is far broader than Covid19.
Epichem:
The revenue into Epichem is fragile as their customer base is impacted by Covid even if they are not in terms of ability to operate.
I think they have done a stellar job to date to not go down in a screaming mess. They are presently looking like they are border line profitable - IMO a position that is MUCH better than thousands of other AU businesses! Nice to see the CEO out there talking up the virtues and also engaging specialist skills to market their abilities.
The Flux capacitor (biomass initiative):
The school is out on this for me. By the look of it (AKA my guess), the role of Epichem presently is to come up with the secret chemical sauce and to make it, at minimum, carbon neutral; not so much on then working out how to do the plant design and build to make it "low cost" and safe for production. I don't understand the road to revenue for Epichem/PharmAust as I don't quite understand new corporate JV entity and any transition plus and related capital raising under the new JV. I also don't understand what rights are related to the use of the technology noting existing and more advanced competitors in this field, rights already with a company called Greenpower, and a few other things that twist and turn to make this gap in confidence for me. I think it will be an interesting piece to probe going forward.
Hand Sani:
When they did the production initial and all for charity, they have mentioned that is was actually challenging to meet the standards required. They also mentioned they struggled with supply chain for bottling and called in favours from other local businesses to make it happen. I think they got good press for this work and have endeared themselves to the Perth community (and govt). If Colin sees this as a potential revenue stream, I am sure he would run with it. But it is a crowed market now with cheap, non-compliant and potentially cheaper compliant product readily available. I have no opinion on if they should push harder in this space, only to say i trust Colin's judgement on the profitability and ongoing benefits of community relations.
ALS/MND:
We have been fortunate, no doubt through substantial background work, to have the ALS / MND funding to secure our research while also allowing PharmAust to retain IP. This has assured research to progress on the core / lead drug for the next 12 months minimum and at the right price to SHs (free). I think this is extremely exciting and with line of funding ii can understand how it jumped to the front of the queue.
Cancer:
I am less concerned that cancer has taken a slightly slower path for now but i still see progress with the published paper and a timeline shared. I do think they are being very cautious / frugal with their available funds plus I expect they are trying not to overstretch their few available human resources. In uncertain times, it is prudent to take care with every step. So if it means they take just a little more time to get the cancer work to full flight then so be it. The ALS/MND work is a value add here anyway with Ph1 and Ph2 information supporting the path for cancer. I am a bit disappointed in the previous announcements being vague around when this would proceed and not having my expectations managed better.

Ah, better get on with work even though i can think of a few other items i would otherwise add to the above list.

Adreamer looking forward to the AGM.