Share
3,626 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1134
clock Created with Sketch.
04/11/20
20:55
Share
Originally posted by phw:
↑
Hi Feral,1/ I don't think the PFS was ever completed. In May 2018, Element 25 completed a scoping study on Butcherbird for the production of Electrolytic Manganese Metals (EMM) for the steel industry as well as High Purity Manganese Sulphate (HPMSM) for lithium ion batteries. But I think from memory the ASX blocked them from announcing the results. (the ASX said it had to be a PFS despite a few other companies being allowed to release scoping study results around the same time) All E25 could say was that the results were 'positive'. I suspect a high NPV, a good IRR, a very long life, but a big +$200M or $300M CAPEX which at the time would have not been achievable for a company trading at 20c and a $16M market cap.2/ Whilst advancing this PFS, I believe the company started to revue a lower CAPEX, quicker path to positive cashflow business, in the form of the direct shipping ore (DSO) operation we are currently seeing roll out. Which will be so incredibly profitable we should see share price at $5 and dividends forever (as I've pointed out previously)3/ But the battery business is what will see us at $10 per share in the years to come. (IMO) So back to that. In February 2019 we saw the joint E25/CSIRO announcement of 99.95% HPM Then the following significant events happened: The Butcherbird resource was upgraded in size ARENA (the Australian Renewable Energy Agency) contributed $500k to advance the project Drilling continued Native Title agreement signed Cooperative Research Centres Project (CRC-P) contributed $1.4M for the pilot plant test programme E25 appointed BurnVoir Corporate to assist with NAIF discussions E25 entered into due diligence phase with NAIF for funding Advisian appointed to advise on power solution for the project Roskill engaged to provide advice on future demand/pricing structure for EMM & HPM 2019 AGM presentation mentions off take discussions are advanced with various Korean, Japanese, USA and EU groups looking to secure Non-Chinese supply4/ Since then and in the subsequent PFS released we know the following: No Flora and Fauna issues Environmental permits granted Access agreement with the pastoralist reached Water available Highway runs through the project Gas pipeline runs through the project West Australian asset5/ Regarding costs and revenues. CAPEX would have to be large Power cost will be enormous so they would have to get that down to compete with subsidised China production. EMM sells for approx US$2,000 a tonne but its a very approx figure and guessing a bit I think Euro Manganese (EMN) have used a bullish US$4,000 in their studies. They also include a graph of current demand for battery Mn at 50,000 tpa but increasing to 400,000 tpa in 2030 Anyway, this will all take time to unravel but I'm sure someone big will get involved as the numbers are too large to ignore.
Expand
Thanks thats very helpful. Mx is very wise to get a good cash flow up and running by selling DSO. With a circa $30m cash flow then a 2 to 3 hundred million capex to make battery material will not be a problem. As soon as the DSO production is bedded down I am sure they will be putting a lot of energy into the high grade product and the life of mine will support it as well. If the PFS was very positive, I am sure they will progress to a DFS and as they are doing larger bulk testing of the CSIRO method their intent is quite clear. For now we need to be content with commissioning and production sales but the future could prove very lucrative. Thanks again.