You are spot on with regards to asian culture around "keeping/losing face".
It is all about optics. If Australia beg/grovel then China will see this as a win and won't impose tarifs. If Australia dig in then China will almost always follow through because they don't like to be embarassed or look like they've lost.
I'm relatively confident China has been posturing to get Australia back into line.
Ann: TWE 2020 AGM Addresses and Q1 Trading Update, page-16
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