Just read through the paper (thanks HCNorth) and completed some numbers to work out value of the paper information... thought I'd share with you to see if it works in with yours. I've also used your assumed after-tax margin and P/E average so hopefully it sits nicely into your spready..
Here's references -
AML cases -
https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/amyl.htmlEM AML cases - https://haematologica.org/article/view/9430#:~:text=So%20far%2C%20EM%20AML%20prevalence,factor%20in%20patients%20with%20AML.
Costs (dated) -
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11276372/#:~:text=The%20costs%20of%20the%20transplantation,AML%20patients%20amounted%20to%20%24104%2C386.
...
After working out number of treatments, revenue, net profit, P/E, capitalisation it come out as $123.5m..
For my vals, I'd then add this as my risk-free and add the obvious additional risk adjusted valuations on top of this to get a more fair value.
.....
This paragraph obviously has a large value in itself, albeit speculative...
IMO, DYOR, etc, etc
(20min delay)