weekend chat, page-39

I think it was me that started the suggestion of a March low around the middle or a bit later of March with several thoughts, some based on Armstrong plus other confirming arguments.

ninelives, with his interest in Armstong, added a multitude of more detailed reasons that almost made it mandatory, lol.

I still like the time period but I have one concern.

I have mentioned several times that waiting for a perfect EW completion cost me in my early trading and I no longer put as much weight on EW as I once did. The reason was because often the last expected minor move didn't happen.

All the same I am obliged to present one EW count and others may see it differently.

The main point is that since the early Jan top, for a "perfect" EW finish, we really need another 200+ pt multi day rally and a final leg down.

Since the Jan top we had 12 trading days down of about 500 pts then a 250 pt rally and now 15 trading days down for about 450 pts.

EW perfection would suggest another rally and another move down.

XJO 3346 on a daily close would normally be the max for any rally before that further leg down starts although you can get overlapping in a final creeping down action.

Here is the chart as I have labelled it. I also repost Oliver's Dow chart which is a bit out of date but shows a possible target.

If a low is seen beyond probably March 23 then we might need to consider Armstrong's April 20 turn which would normally be considered a high but is not necessarily an equity downturn but a major change in some aspect of the economic and financial environment.